Business as usual
The BAU scenario continues the historic trend in which efficiency measures and increasing manufacturing activity cancel each other out with respect to the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions. Growth in manufacturing causes energy demand to increase by up to 29 TWh to a total of 161 TWh in 2050, including electrolysis losses (156 TWh without electrolysis, as the use of hydrogen is limited). Austrian industry remains reliant on large quantities of fossil energy, such as coal, naphtha and oil, to cover both its energy and raw materials needs, resulting in total emissions of 23 Mt CO₂e in 2050.
Results
BAU serves as a reference scenario and is based on the assumption that historic trends and economic development forecasts will continue unchanged.
- No exodus of high emissions industries.
- Increasing efficiency is offset by the growth of manufacturing activity in terms of impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
- Growth in manufacturing causes energy demand to increase by 29 TWh to a total of 161 TWh in 2050, including electrolysis losses (156 TWh without losses).
- Industry continues to rely on fossil sources of energy and raw materials such as coal, naphtha and oil, generating total emissions of 23 Mt CO₂e in 2050.